Are You Good Enough
Maybe, maybe not.
It takes significantly more than you think to “make it” in baseball, and with the shrinking of the minor leagues the amount of spots gets lower and lower every year. Especially for the late bloomers and the classic “underdog” stories who are the ones losing their spots, not the top prospects.
Players that used to be no doubt draft picks are now fringe to even be offered an un-drafted free agent spot. The MLB first year player draft was cut from 40 rounds (about 1250 players) to 20 rounds. This would mean more room for un-drafted free agents, right? It could have, but instead the MILB cut their minor league domestic roster (total number of players in an organization) from about 210 to 160 over the course of a few years.
So now you have to be better than ever just to get a chance.
What It Takes:
As a pitcher, it really takes a combination of 3-4 traits
Velocity
Command
Offspeed
Projectability
Different people have different levels of each of these, and some matter more than others.
A pitcher with no velocity at all but great command and projectability will probably get the chance to play at a low level college.
A pitcher with tons of present velocity and projectability, but limited command and offspeed will probably get a million bucks come draft time.
If I needed to win a game today, I'd probably take the guy who can fill it up. If I needed to win a world series I would probably take the guy who looks like he is going to throw 100 someday and try to get him to work around the zone.
This is the mental framework for how scouting works, they don't draft people (especially young players) on their ability to win a game right now. They try to whip out their crystal ball and look to see what the 17 year old highschool pitcher will be in a half of a decade.
Velocity
You simply have to throw the ball hard, or show promise that you are going to be able to throw the ball hard in the future.
I watched a starting pitcher that is a Junior in college sit 90-91 with his fastball, threw a good slider and a changeup and curveball that were “just ok”.
He himself was a really good athlete, but his delivery was stiff and did not project to throw much harder in the future.
I sent this information up the chain of command and he was marked down as someone who was a “project” and would not be a priority pick of free agent signing.
He simply needs to throw harder if he wants to get paid to play.
Command
Earlier this year I went to watch a LHP throw, he had a good fastball up to 95 with ride, and had an ok curveball and splitter.
However his delivery was really clunky and he had some really big miss patterns. He didn't throw a high amount of strikes, walked some guys and struggled that outing. His misses makes it hard for him to be efficient, and he likely profiles as a reliever in the professionals.
This lack of command tanks his value, as starters are incredibly valuable while relievers are pretty common.
Next Newsletter
In tomorrow's newsletter we will go into projectability and offspeed.Two things that can totally change the perception of a prospect/player.
John