Fitting the Mold:Daily Newsletter 10/100

Patrick Forbes fits the Mold.

Patrick Forbes: Fitting the Mold

I mentioned this in a previous article, but when I look into evaluating and

There are certainly a ton of examples of this in the game of baseball, some are certainly more under the radar than others, but one person who fits this mold is Louisville RHP Patrick Forbes. Forbes couldn't be less under the radar, as he played in the Cape and for team USA, but some publications have him listed at the 187th overall draft prospect, which is criminally underrated in my opinion for a talent like this.

Unique Release:

Forbes throws from a low slot, and is able to create a ton of ride relative to his release height. Yet, he falls into the trap of throwing mostly sinkers. His four seam is pretty electric, yet he throws it less than 10% of the time (based on baseball savants breakdown of his 2/14/25 outing against University of Texas). He throws a sinker, which is also pretty great, sitting in at 95 with a good amount of armside run and some good depth at times. However, the two often blend together, and being able to really create a separation there could be a solid replacement for the lack of feel he has for a changeup.

Underexploited Pitch Shapes:

As mentioned earlier, he potentially could lean into his 4S fastball more, leading him to have a lethal top of the zone offering, with him also being able to create more separation from his curveball and sweeper offerings.

He also pitches off his fastballs predominantly, which could lead to him being hit more this upcoming season than he really should. Being able to dominate an elite college baseball lineup while throwing nearly 80% fastballs is unbelievably impressive, but could be hard to do over the course of his entire college season.

Forbes showcases the ability to create every shape he needs, with him flashing a sweepy slider, a more depthy curve and 2 fastball profiles that are able to create upwards of 10 inches of separation. In addition, he flashed a changeup twice, once for a strike. He also throws a cutter around 88-89 that profiles close to a gyro.

Forbes has every single profile that he could need to be a frontline starter in MLB, and showcased great command in his season debut.

Inexperience:

Forbes' inexperience is probably more well documented than others, given the fact that he is inexperienced due to his own physical capabilities. He barely pitched much as a freshman, due to the fact he played 42 games all across the diamond, and hit .260 with a .760 ops.

Forbes threw 9 innings as a freshman, struggling with command. He is young for his grade, graduating HS at 17, all of these factors would explain him having a younger developmental age than a normal college junior. Forbes has less than 43 innings after highschool, counting summer ball in the Cape Cod league twice. He has some things to prove from a consistency standpoint, but he is poised to take another massive leap forward, as he has improved dramatically every step of the way thus far.

Conclusion and Comp:

I am incredibly high on Forbes. He is a mega athlete, starting in multiple positions as a freshman and getting over 100 at bats. He checks every box from a pitch design component, he has a very unique slot and throws the ball really hard. He also has so much development left, and is seemingly incredibly raw for someone who is already so incredibly high floored.

The comp to me is obvious, he reminds me way too much of a former teammate of mine: Bryan Woo. This comp is generous, as Woo is a borderline Cy Young candidate, but the upside is there and the background & pitch shapes are too incredibly similar.

It is a near identical release, both having a low release upshoot type fastball. Woo creates slightly more sweep than Forbes does presently, but the Sweeper/Gyro combo is absolutely something that Forbes is very close to already. With 2 similar present fastballs and a change-up that he flashed sparingly, Woo and Forbes have near identical plans of attack.

They both have such a unique release that they can pitch off of primarily fastballs, which is rare. They both are mega athletic, and showed drastic steps forward in command from their freshman year to their junior year. Again, I am super high on Forbes, and think not only could he work his way into the first round, but if his command continues to hold as “much improved”, his path to the big leagues could be a very quick one.

John