Last week I made a guest appearance on a Mets newsletter, “The Mets fix”. I wrote about the state of their organization and a few players that have caught my eye thus far.
As always, I hope you enjoy.
But first:
The Youth Baseball Memories Fund
We have started a fund for youth baseball players and families in need. The memories that I had during my experience in youth baseball are irreplaceable, and helping others have those same memories is a no-brainer. YOUTH BASEBALL MEMORIES FUND All donations are 501c3 deductible, paid subscriptions count as well.
So far, we have done well and raised about $400, which can make a huge impact on a families ability to play summer baseball. I plan to have this fund continually run and help players year round.
Back to it.
High Floor, Higher Ceiling
I simply cannot emphasize this enough:
There has never been a better time to be a Mets fan.
There are three major components to being a winning Major League Baseball club: great players, an owner who will make the moves that are needed, and an elite player development staff. This might sound simple, but there simply are not many teams that have all three.
The Mets check every box. They signed the biggest free agent in baseball history, out dueling the most historic franchise in sport. They have prospects to fill their every need, and a player development staff that knows how to find diamonds in the rough.
The Mariners have an awesome player development staff and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but their ownership hasn't shown willingness to spend money.
The Padres have one of the best lineups in baseball and an owner that is known for making splash moves, but they have the 25th ranked farm system in baseball. When injuries get in the way, they have less depth to pull from.
The Rays have an amazing reputation in Player Development and acquisition, but being in a smaller market they are capped in their spending ability.
The Mets are one of the few teams that really have the ability to make moves in every direction, they can call up top pitching prospects, promote high level hitters to fill their injury needs or make an acquisition at the deadline that actually moves the needle.
If you don't have all three components, it is really hard to win out consistently over a stretch of 162 regular season games. You can only have 25 players on the active roster, and you’ve got about 1500 innings of baseball to cover if you want to make the postseason. The season is hard, and it's certainly a war of attrition.
This is a war the Mets are prepared for.
Higher Ceiling
The Mets have tons of prospects to be excited about. Their #1 prospect Brandon Sproat is on the brink of debuting in the big leagues, flashing fastballs approaching 100 miles per hour with 2 distinct movement styles (Sinker and 4 seam) and 4 offspeed pitches that all work out to be anywhere from average to well above average.
However, I think there is someone lurking in Sproats’ shadow who may be an even more exciting prospect.
Jonah Tong, the 7th round selection in 2022 from Canada was electric in his first full professional season.
Tong is a lanky, high slot right handed pitcher that displays elite athleticism in his delivery. Watching him throw the ball reminds you of Tim Lincecum, and old school over the top delivery that contains a lot of deception. In a world of cookie cutter, Tong is a breath of fresh air in a lot of ways.
It is really easy to be a fan of Tong. He wields an absolute weapon of a fastball, something he will be able to rely on at any level of baseball. This fastball not only has elite “ride” but is paired with his elite deception and extension, it takes an already very good pitch and makes it even more dominating. Tong also has shown 3 offspeed pitches that all grade out at or above major league average. Most of these offerings are new, as he added his cutter in early 2024, and will have plenty of time to refine the pitch. The changeup is the least inspiring, but when you pair it with a lethal fastball it tends to get better results than it otherwise would.
Starting the season in Low A, he mauled his way through professional lineups as a 20 year old. Striking out an absurd 17 hitters per 9 innings before being quickly promoted to High A. Most professional players consider High-A the first challenging level, one where the pretenders are often separated from the real prospects. Here as a 20 year old, Tong should be expected to face his first adversity as he gets to face more mature and advanced lineups.
Tong did not disappoint, he proceeded to dominate hitters and post a 30% strikeout rate. This is impressive on its own, but significantly more impressive for a 20 year old in his first full season. He did so well that he earned himself a promotion to AA and did more of the same.
AA is yet another major jump, and one that often takes a long time to adjust to.
Tong not only did more of the same, but actually performed even better in his small sample. He struck out hitters at nearly a 40% rate (37.8%) and maintained the same walk rate he posted in High A. It is safe to say, in his Age 20 season, Tong showed nothing but pure dominance.
With room to mature physically, Tong has so much room left before he finds his ceiling. He will have an easier path to consistency, as the proliferation of his cutter will likely give him an offering to lower his one flaw: a slightly above average walk rate.
This is not something I am worried about for Tong, he showcases so much athleticism that his walk rate will likely consistently tick downwards as he matures physically.
With a player like Tong, it is easy to get excited. With newfound precedent in MLB of bringing in electric prospects as bullpen help, I will go ahead and say I do not see a reason that Tong couldn't help the Mets bullpen down the stretch in September.
Tong has no doubt stuff, his issues will fall in command and consistency as he continues his career. Challenging a player like Tong is something plenty of teams have done in the past, as young players have been getting pushed quicker to the major league level.
The Mets have plenty to be excited about on the pitching side of things, and the excitement does not end at the prospect level.
High Floor
Not every player is as flashy as a Brandon Sproat or a Jonah Tong. In fact, I would argue that the boring acquisitions can end up being the ones that really move the needle over the long haul.
When you have prospects like Tong & Sproat, and sign someone like Juan Soto, it is really easy to forget that signings like Juan Soto do not come around very often. The signings on players like Griffin Canning are the ones you can consistently count on to find hidden value.
Canning was a blue chip prospect with the Angels, and has shown the ability to take the ball at the Major League level and carry his own weight. While he hasn’t necessarily blossomed into the frontline starter he was expected to be, his potential is far from over.
For reference, 1.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is valued at approximately $8million. Signing a player like Canning for $4.25M offers the mets a high (enough) floor major league inning eater if they dont get him any better than he already is. This is where the Mets player development has the ability to shine.
The Mets Vice President of Pitching Eric Jagers does not sign people unless he sees something where he is able to get them better. Signing a player without a plan to make them more valuable than their contract is not a winning formula. In Cannings case, it appears the Mets had a clear plan to change his pitch usage.
The Old
Throughout his entire career, Canning averages about 40% fastball usage. This number alone is not anything to write home about, however it is his worst performing pitch.
Canning has always had an elite changeup and above average slider, so why would these pitches get used significantly less than his well below average fastball? There could be some reasons: comfortability or command are two common answers. He doesn’t really know how he would fare throwing his fastball less, and for most people the Major Leagues isn't exactly a low stress environment to try things out in.
So for 5 years Griffin Canning threw his worst pitch the most, and was still talented enough to find big league success, racking up almost 5 career WAR.
But how much better can he be? It seems as though the Mets are determined to find out.
The New
This spring, Canning has shown an entirely new strategy.
In his most recent outing, he threw his fastball 25.4% of the time, a huge drop off from his career average. Canning also flashed a brand new cutter at about 10% usage, and allowed his best offerings to carry the load.
The results? He punched 9 tickets in 4.2 innings of 1 run baseball.
Sure it’s spring training, but I am more excited about the apparent new strategy than I am the results.
Canning has flashed a lower fastball usage in the past, in fact it was in his best year. In 2023 he used his fastball a career low, posting a 34% usage rate. These numbers might seem insignificant, but this is the big leagues we are talking about, every inch matters.
Is 2025 the year?
Is it?
Truly, I don’t know. What is important is that my excitement about the Mets is way deeper than any one season's potential. I am a believer in the Mets because of who they are as a franchise.
A franchise that is willing to go get elite talent. A franchise that is willing to do the dirt work and find undervalued players. A franchise that knows their way around developing young talent, and keeps the pipeline full of potential impact and replacement level players.
The Mets are creating an ecosystem for success and consistency at the big league level, and that is something to be excited about.
ProFormance Newsletter
If you enjoyed this, I write about player development within baseball in my own newsletter. As a former professional pitcher with the Mariners, player development trends have been my life for the last decade. Getting to see it from the outside and see how different organizations run their development systems is what I really enjoy.
I am in the middle of a 100 straight days of newsletters, and cover anything and everything baseball related, from major league performance trends to college prospects to youth baseball help. I've enjoyed meeting and growing the community of people who love player development in baseball.
John Creel
Former Professional Baseball Player
Writer of the ProFormance Newsletter