Surplus Value: Turning Relievers into Starters
Todays newest edge.
Surplus Value: Turning Relievers into Starters
Creating surplus value is something that every Major League Baseball team looks for when acquiring Free agents or drafting players in the yearly amateur player draft. The teams compete to see which players were improperly utilized, given bad strategic advice or simply under-performed their projections because of bad luck. But what about players that had good years, filled their role well and checked all the boxes? What then? It would be nice if that hitter who got 500 At Bats was able to get 1500 next year, but that's not how the game works.
The only time you can choose to triple someone's workload is in the event of “promoting” a relief pitcher to a starter. However, most MLB relievers are failed starters, so why would you try this? Simply, because if you make the change successfully your roster receives a surplus value of about $12 Million dollars. A solid reliever, who throws 60 -70 innings a year and has success will be able to provide your team with about 1.0 WAR, which has a value of $8-9 Million on the open market. However, this same pitcher throwing 160-180 innings could easily accumulate a WAR of 2-2.5, which would offer the team another 12-13 million in surplus value.
A prime candidate for this could be Twins reliever Cole Sands, who took a massive leap forward this year in both inning workload and command. He dropped his BB% from 13.3% to 4.1%, leading to a K/BB% ratio of 25% while also racking up a career high in innings with 71.1.
Why does this matter? Most people in baseball would acknowledge two truths about why it is difficult for relievers to make the switch to starting: Most relievers lack the command that starters have, and most relievers aren't able to handle the workload associated with starting. Unfortunately, too many times these two truths work together to create a downward spiral of increased workload from too many pitches that are caused by deep counts and walks.
However, when you see a reliever take a massive step forward in command and workload, it is worth a look into making said reliever into a starter. However, when you take a look into someone making the switch, there are a few things you need to look out for.
1- Effectiveness of off-speed on opposite handed hitters. (Platoon Neutrality)
2- Command of Secondary Pitches
Most MLB organizations will have an internal system to measure these, so different organizations will come to different conclusions. But for the sake of public access, we are going to use the data from MLBPitchProfiler
First, Sands throws 5 different pitches. In order from highest usage to lowest usage: Cutter, 4S, Splitter, Curveball, Sinker. Despite not using these two pitches the most, his two best offerings from a stuff+ perspective (by a significant margin) are his Splitter and his Curveball.
Below is a chart on how MLBPitchProfiler models Sands’ Arsenal.
On the right side of the chart, you can see how the pitches are graded out against both handedness of hitters. So how does Sands fair against our two criteria?
1- Effectiveness of off-speed on opposite handed hitters. (Platoon Neutrality)
Against opposite handed hitters, Sands has two pitches that grade out at or above Major League Average, with one of those two being significantly above MLB average. The Splitter grades out at a 112stuff+, which is a great option for Sands. The curve has a 105 stuff+ rating against opposite handed hitters, which is a great grade for a pitch that is his 4th most used against them.
In my opinion, this checks the box of being good enough to handle the opposite handed hitters. Having a cutter that you throw primarily, with a very good location to accent these two offerings is a combination that would be able to sustain success at the MLB level over the course of a season.
Additionally, he uses his two best pitches only 37.7% of the time. The lowest hanging fruit would be to up the usage of these pitches, specifically the Curveball that is used only 11% of the time. This move is simple in theory, but in practice you need to check his ability to command the pitches. Bringing us to our second point.
2- Command of Secondary Pitches
Arguably the biggest burden on a reliever becoming a starter is workload increase, which as stated earlier can be compounded by bad command. However, Sands commands 4 pitches at an above major league level. 4 to the same handed hitters, and 2 to opposite handed hitters with a third being a 99 location+ (essentially league average).
Sands checks another box, making him a prime candidate for becoming a starter in my eyes. Everything carries risk, but the risk to reward ratio for this switch is severely slanted in favor of making the change.
My final suggestion for this, would be to utilize the natural variance of Sands’ Breaking ball to create two distinct shapes. Sands has thrown a breaking ball with 0 IVB and -18.8 hb. Shaping to be a pretty elite sweeper, that would profile exceptionally strong against same handed hitters. He has also thrown some at -10 vb and -10 hb, shaping into a solid depthy slurve that would be very effective against opposite handed hitters.
Adding pitches can be incredibly difficult, which is why leaning into things the athlete has already done can be incredibly beneficial. Taking Sands’ natural capabilities and emphasizing them would be an easy advantage to look into exploiting. Nothing is guaranteed, but enough of the signs are there to make this change. The risks are always there, but the ability to create $10m+ in surplus value for your team is rare.
John