The New Priority: Daily Newsletter 14/100
The New ABS will likely change a lot.
Pitchings’ New Priority
The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) also known as the “Robo Umps” also known as “The Automated zone” could be here soon, and for better or worse there is nothing we can do about it. The MLB commissioner's office is running the show with this one, and we will likely see a major shift in game strategy this season compared to last season, if they choose to implement it in 2026. It is entirely possible we see a major shift in the style of the catcher position, as framing has likely lost a lot of its value, and it is now a position focused much more on hitting for power and throwing. I don't know which way I see it going, as I believe teams will be conservative with their challenges, so there is a good chance that stealing strikes still occurs.
The New Zone
The new ABS zone is tiny. The zone only consists of 26.5% of a player's height (from 27% at the bottom to 53.5% at the top), and is now measured by the back corners of the plate instead of the front. For a 6’0” hitter, 26.5% of your height is 19.08 inches, that is microscopic.
But on the pitching side, it likely changes at a much faster rate. We will likely see a huge shift negatively in swing %, with hitters taking infinitely more pitches than they used to, and pitchers will have to adapt in more ways than one. It is likely we see an entire paradigm shift of what pitchers are trying to accomplish.
When hitters swing less, it negatively impacts pitching in a plethora of ways: rising pitch counts, increased walks, increased visibility and comfort-ability with pitches are just a few off the top. The added stress for arms associated with throwing more pitches and facing teams that are comfortable with not swinging until you prove you can get ahead consistently is severe.
As a pitcher, the primary goal of landing pitches in the zone will become more critical than ever before. This adjustment stems from the way the new ABS zone is defined, which significantly limits the area in which a pitch can be called a strike. The smaller strike zone will force pitchers to alter their approach, focusing on getting pitches over the plate more consistently. This means that the emphasis will shift away from trying to deceive hitters with pitches on the edges of the zone and instead toward precision in hitting the smaller, tighter strike zone.
Pitchers will need to make a tough decision about their pitch usage, particularly regarding their higher-stuff pitches—those with more movement or velocity. While these pitches have long been favored for their ability to get swing-and-miss strikeouts, they are less likely to land in the new, smaller strike zone. As a result, pitchers may find themselves opting for pitches that move less but are easier to control, such as fastballs or other less volatile offerings that can be thrown with greater consistency. This trade-off will be one of the most significant shifts in pitching strategy under the new system.
The immediate effect of this change will likely be more balls in play, resulting in increased contact rates. When pitchers are forced to focus on the strike zone, hitters will have more opportunities to make contact, and the ball will likely find the field of play more often than before. However, if pitchers fail to adjust correctly or struggle with consistency in locating the ball, it could lead to deeper counts, more walks, and longer at-bats. This, in turn, could slow the game down in the short term as teams and pitchers work through the learning curve of adapting to these changes.
Ultimately, the game will likely see a quicker pace with more balls in play and fewer strikeouts. The hope is that this will lead to higher offensive output, as batters will be given more chances to swing at hittable pitches within the reduced strike zone. In theory, this will provide the league with the more exciting, faster-paced game that they desire, but the transition period may come with some growing pains for both pitchers and teams.
Teams that can adapt quickly to this new environment will likely gain a significant advantage. The key to success will be the teams that prioritize limiting the number of swings they take, optimizing the ability to swing at the right pitches, and minimizing chasing pitches out of the zone. Teams whose pitchers can control the strike zone with consistency—optimizing their pitch selection to prioritize accuracy over movement—will have the edge. By focusing on these aspects, teams can capitalize on the new system, creating a more effective and efficient style of play that maximizes the advantages of the adjusted rules.
In conclusion, while the ABS system brings significant changes to the game, it also creates new opportunities for teams and pitchers who are able to adapt quickly. Emphasizing precision over deception, optimizing pitch usage, and maximizing plate discipline will be the key strategies moving forward. As the game evolves under these new conditions, teams that are able to embrace these shifts will likely come out on top, while those who resist change may struggle to keep up.
Arsenal Optimization
As a pitcher, I knew my arsenal quite well. I knew what I had and more importantly what I didn't have. I knew which pitches played better against left handed hitters and right handed hitters. I knew which pitches were likely to get hitters to chase and which hitters wouldn't. I knew what pitches hitters would and would swing at generally, and I certainly knew which ones were easy to put in the strike zone consistently.
As a pitcher, the primary goal of landing pitches in the zone will become more critical than ever before. This adjustment stems from the way the new ABS zone is defined, which significantly limits the area in which a pitch can be called a strike. The smaller strike zone will force pitchers to alter their approach, focusing on getting pitches over the plate more consistently. This means that the emphasis will shift away from trying to deceive hitters with pitches on the edges of the zone and instead toward precision in hitting the smaller, tighter strike zone. This is the case already, but the ABS will certainly stress this to the nth degree.
Pitchers will need to make a tough decision about their pitch usage, particularly regarding their higher-stuff pitches—those with more movement or velocity. While these pitches have long been favored for their ability to get swing-and-miss strikeouts, they are less likely to land in the new, smaller strike zone. As a result, pitchers may find themselves opting for pitches that move less but are easier to control, such as fastballs or other less volatile offerings that can be thrown with greater consistency. This trade-off will be one of the most significant shifts in pitching strategy under the new system.
The Change
The immediate effect of this change will likely be more balls in play, resulting in increased contact rates. When pitchers are forced to focus on the strike zone, hitters will have more opportunities to make contact, and the ball will likely find the field of play more often than before. However, if pitchers fail to adjust correctly or struggle with consistency in locating the ball, it could lead to deeper counts, more walks, and longer at-bats. This, in turn, could slow the game down in the short term as teams and pitchers work through the learning curve of adapting to these changes.
Ultimately, the game will likely see a quicker pace with more balls in play and fewer strikeouts. The hope is that this will lead to higher offensive output, as batters will be given more chances to swing at hittable pitches within the reduced strike zone. In theory, this will provide the league with the more exciting, faster-paced game that they desire, but the transition period may come with some growing pains for both pitchers and teams.
Teams that can adapt quickly to this new environment will likely gain a significant advantage. The key to success will be the teams that prioritize limiting the number of swings they take, optimizing the ability to swing at the right pitches, and minimizing chasing pitches out of the zone. Teams whose pitchers can control the strike zone with consistency—optimizing their pitch selection to prioritize accuracy over movement—will have the edge. By focusing on these aspects, teams can capitalize on the new system, creating a more effective and efficient style of play that maximizes the advantages of the adjusted rules.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the ABS system brings significant changes to the game, it also creates new opportunities for teams and pitchers who are able to adapt quickly. Emphasizing precision over deception, optimizing pitch usage, and maximizing plate discipline will be the key strategies moving forward. As the game evolves under these new conditions, teams that are able to embrace these shifts will likely come out on top, while those who resist change may struggle to keep up.
John